Financial Mindset

As Donald Trump searches for an exit to the Iran war, the narrow Strait of Hormuz increasingly looks like a labyrinth in which the commander-in-chief has no good options.  Any ceasefire or U.S. disengagement that cedes control of the strait risks creating new problems, including potentially triggering a nuclear arms race among Gulf states, experts say. But taking control of the strait militarily requires massive costs and risks, including a strategic invasion that comes short of occupying the country. Trump said March 31 he wants to leave Iran in two or three weeks, hours after he vented against allies to “Go get your own oil!” Continuing with the status quo, meanwhile—in which the U.S. and Israel pound Iranian targets, while Iran charges multi-million dollar tolls to let select ships pass through the strait—could send the global economy into a recession. “If this goes on for another two months, we’re in a global recession. There’s no way around it,” Jim...

As the bell rang out over the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday afternoon, it was an unusually beautiful day: 71 degrees, sun pouring on the faces of people swarming through the city. After the brutal cold of winter, it felt like something of a miracle. The markets had spent the day chasing one of their own. Iran’s official news agency reported an unconfirmed phone call between President Masoud Pezeshkian and the European Council president, where Pezeshkian said Iran had the “necessary will” to end the war; provided that “essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression.” The S&P went vertical immediately afterwards. It didn’t matter that Pezeshkian had said nearly the same thing on X earlier this month, or that it wasn’t even clear how big a development this was. The Nasdaq still snapped back 795 points, recovering nearly half of its total drawdown over the course of the U.S.-Israeli-Iran war in a single day. The S...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a sobering assessment of America’s fiscal health on Monday, telling a Harvard economics class audience that while the nation’s $39 trillion debt load is not immediately dangerous, the path the country is on demands urgent attention from lawmakers. “The level of the debt is not unsustainable,” Powell said during a wide-ranging conversation before roughly 400 students, “but the path is not sustainable. It will not end well if we don’t do something fairly soon.” The remarks extend a consistent warning Powell has sounded for years, that while the the debt level is manageable in the short term, the fiscal trajectory absolutely is not. His comments also came as the average national gas price neared $4 per gallon amid a war in Iran that shows no signs of resolving soon, despite President Trump’s inconsistent noises about a potential end to hostilities. Powell was careful to draw a distinction between the stock of debt and its trajectory, noting...

Even after  President Donald Trump  ordered emergency pay for Transportation Security Administration agents to ease  long security lines , major U.S. airports on Sunday were still urging travelers to arrive hours early — and federal immigration officers brought in to help may not be leaving anytime soon. Trump’s  executive order  on Friday instructed the Department of Homeland Security to pay TSA officers immediately, though it’s unclear how quickly travelers will see an impact. The move comes during a busy travel stretch, with spring breaks underway and Passover and Easter approaching. Tens of thousands of TSA employees have been working without pay since DHS funding lapsed on Valentine’s Day. The department’s shutdown reached 44 days on Sunday, eclipsing the  record 43-day shutdown  last fall that affected all of the federal government. Trump  deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents  to some airports a week ago to help with s...

Investors are looking past President Donald Trump’s attempts to talk oil prices down as reports signal an increasingly likelihood that U.S. ground troops will be deployed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit has arrived in the Middle East, and the 11th MEU is en route, while thousands of paratroopers with the 82nd Airborne Division are headed there too. Another 10,000 U.S. troops are reportedly under consideration for deployment as well. Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average fell 298 points, or 0.66%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.62%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.68%. U.S. oil futures rose 2.4% to $101.99 a barrel, and Brent crude climbed 2% to $114.88. The national average gasoline price reached $3.98 a gallon on Sunday, up $1 over the past month, according to AAA . The U.S. dollar was up 0.14% against the euro and flat against the yen. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 1.2 basis point to 4.428%. Borrowin...

Asia is getting wealthier, older—and potentially sicker, as rates of non-communicable disease rise across Southeast Asia. Yet governments aren’t investing enough in public healthcare, threatening to open up a massive funding gap. “Asia has more diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular patients than anywhere else in the world,” Abrar Mir, co-founder and managing partner of Singapore-based healthcare private equity firm Quadria Capital, tells Fortune. Asia’s healthcare market is expected to reach roughly $5 trillion in size by 2030 and contribute 40% of growth in the global healthcare sector, according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group . Yet it currently accounts for just 20% of global healthcare spending, despite making up more than half of the world’s population.  Southeast Asia is particularly at risk from rising rates of chronic disease. The World Health Organization estimates that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) claim 8.5 million lives annually in the region , driven by ...

Large crowds protested Saturday against the war in Iran and  President Donald Trump’s actions  in “No Kings” rallies across the U.S. and in Europe. Minnesota took center stage, with thousands of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder to celebrate resistance to Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement. Minnesota’s flagship event on the Capitol lawn in St. Paul drew  Bruce Springsteen  as its headliner. He and other speakers praised the state’s people for taking to the streets over the winter in opposition to a surge of U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement agents. Springsteen performed “ Streets of Minneapolis ,” the song he wrote in response to the fatal shootings of  Renee Good  and  Alex Pretti  by federal agents. Springsteen lamented Good and Pretti’s deaths but said the state’s pushback against ICE has given the rest of the country hope. “Your strength and your commitment told us that this was still America,” he said. “And this reactiona...