Nvidia is facing its biggest challenge yet: The law of large numbers
Nvidia’s Q2 release on Aug. 27 marked by far the biggest event of this earnings season, and the AI chip giant scored another phenomenal performance. For the three months ended July 28, Nvidia beat analysts’ already Brobdingnagian forecasts for sales, revenue, and guidance, though a shortfall in data-center sales proved a slight disappointment that sent shares around 1% lower in midmorning trading on Aug. 28. Some Wall Street analysts also expressed concerns over a disclosure in Nvidia’s 10-Q that for its trademark franchise—chip sales to data centers—it’s collecting 44% of its revenues from just two hyperscalers, assumed to be Microsoft and Meta Platforms . If you’re a Nvidia investor, or pondering buying its shares now, it’s important to recognize that the threat to getting anything resembling big returns isn’t that heavy dependence on a few big customers, or Chinese rivals playing catch-up, but the law of large numbers. Put simply, Nvidia’s profits and market cap are already so gi...